converium gaining more momentum again

some minor outlook improvements from ratings agencies.. just notional stuff the ratings have not been notched up yet. but the sentiment is improving. Q2 results looked acceptable. even though speacialty insurance lines were weak and investment results rather weak too. at this point i guess it is an overcapitalized company with mediocre returns. the bet here is that new managemetn can improve things ehre over the medium to long term for the better. cannot be that difficult to do. can it?

the ratings improvement is evidently jsut part of teh story here. i guess there is an element of adverse selectio here. BBB somethign rating attracts clients that will be tough on pricing. hence sucky combined ration. the only good thing is that combined ratio has been improving. so let give them a little bet more time. and with a ratings kick aroudn year end, maybe they make a quantum leap here in absorbing the high fixed costs and attractive more generous client base.

this company has elements of a liquidation and is priced as such.. but also has elements of turnaround.. you have to believe somehow that the biz can be turned around in non life and specialty lines to acceptable combined ratio levels. you algo got to believe that investment results are improvable. a lot of believing some would say, but then again this is not a fly by night startup but rather a 20 to 25 year old company with client relationship inherited from zurich financial. not of bad pedigree... so why not give it the benefit of doubt and believe that it can be more than a liquidation.

at this point this puppy is priced like a liquidation. so the upside optionality is priced close to zero. and we like these freaking zero cost options or free lottery tickets. dont we?...

free money anyone. yep. bring it on with truckloads.

peace out. Z