Lodgian Update

similar stuff going on at Lodgian.

not that an actual deal has been announced, but strategic alternatives are being pursued by bankers.

Once announced, stock should respond nicely.

This is actually one of these cash flow stories that smaller private equity firms might be interested in, since much less leverage will be involved. a strategic hotel operator could find their cleaned up properties interesting.

due diligence will be tricky here to any buyer given how sketchy the last 3 years have been.

my best bet:

1) Management will make a run at it all, possessing the best inside info.

second best alternative

2) A strategic investor comes along. someone with hotel background

3) a private equity firm will try to make sense of the situation.

4) finally the status quo could continue. in which case stock would lose a few cents. principally as the story would continue to be a show me story. well. they would have to show that their massive property refurbishment programs of the last few years has born fruits. thats what i think in the first place. but timing wise these guys have never been in the market for miracles.

to recapitulate.. everythign in real estate related industries has appreciated in past 4 years, except Lodgian. what is the likelyhood of that going to continue.

I think Lodgian today is very much uncorrelated with real estate per se and the stock market as well. so it fits my bill of an alternative investment. and i see more than casual potential for investmetn return.

do the hotel comps for a start and you shall see..

Converium.. Update

you probably all saw it but forgot where you got this marvelous idea from. hehe.

well, looks like a takeover battle is heating up here and shareholders being rewarded so far to the tune of 50% for their patience.

that's an OK return for holding this paper 9/10 months..

we keep holdings since we always want more.